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Dec 14, 2010

In the cold, Brady, Patriots are calculating - The Tony Massarotti Sports Blog, featuring Red Sox, Bruins, Patriots and Celtics analysis

Gillette Stadium at night.Image via WikipediaIn the cold, Brady, Patriots are calculating - The Tony Massarotti Sports Blog, featuring Red Sox, Bruins, Patriots and Celtics analysis

In the cold, Brady, Patriots are calculating

Posted by Tony Massarotti, Globe Staff December 13, 2010 08:54 AM
Yesterday, in the wind and snow, the Patriots proved again why their Monday night victory over the Jets meant so much. Football changes at this time of year. The weather becomes an enormous factor. And it may be time to wonder whether Tom Brady is the best bad-weather quarterback that Old Man Winter has ever seen.
Six days after shredding the Jets at Gillette Stadium, Brady chopped up the Chicago Bears yesterday in a 36-7 victory over the Chicago Bears at a frostbitten Soldier Field. Brady completed 27 of 40 passes for 369 yards, two touchdowns and, fortunately, no interceptions. With the performance, he improved to a preposterous 32-4 in regular- and post-season games played at temperatures below 40 degrees.
Brady’s rating in those contests: 95.2.
Brady’s rating for his career: 94.9.
The man really should be a spokesman for the US Postal Service.
So what does any of that have to do with the Jets game? Only everything. With last week’s win over the Jets, the Patriots put themselves in the driver’s seat for the division title and, thus, home field advantage and a first-round bye. Even with yesterday’s loss by New York, do not minimize the importance of that game. In this case, it is quite possible that the Jets took the field yesterday still feeling the effects on their New England beatdown, only putting further distance between Foxborough and the Meadowlands.
With two wins in their next three games, the Patriots will lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. And if the Jets should defeat Pittsburgh in Week 15, the Patriots would need only defeat Buffalo or Miami in their final two games to lock up home field advantage and a bye.
If there are still any concerns with this Patriots team – and there always are – the last two weeks have only affirmed Belichick’s longstanding belief that the NFL season begins after Thanksgiving. As much as any New England team in recent memory, these Patriots are built for cold, bad weather that seems to make the Patriots a better defensive team (by making opponents worse?) and to which Brady seems utterly oblivious.
For comparison’s sake, let’s consider, say, Peyton Manning. In his regular- and post-season career, Manning is 6-8 with a 74.9 rating in games played at temperatures beneath 40 degrees. In the playoffs alone, he is 0-3. Put Manning in cold, miserable weather and he goes from arguably the greatest passer in history to a below-average quarterback who is more prone to mistakes, something that all of America witnessed during Indy’s visit to Foxborough three weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Brady turns into a frigid beast. In the Patriots last three outdoor games, all played at temperatures beneath 40 degrees, Brady has thrown for 881 yards, eight touchdowns, and no interceptions. He has completed an insane 71.3 percent of his passes. His passer rating, if you believe in that statistic, is a whopping 128.9. The Patriots are 3-0 during that span and have averaged 37.3 points per game.
Also nestled into that block, of course, is a Thanksgiving Day game at cozy Ford Field in Detroit during which Brady passed for 341 yards in a 45-24 victory.
As consistent as Brady’s play has been during that time, what sticks out just as much is the play of the Patriots defense. Without question, the Pats’ worst defensive game during that stretch was indoors at Detroit, where, at times, Shaun Hill was made to look like Joe Montana. The fourth-quarter breakdown against Indianapolis certainly was terrifying, yet the Patriots played good defense for much of that game against Manning. They only went into a shell after having built a 31-14 lead in the fourth quarter.
The Jets? They scored three points. The Bears got seven. And before anyone suggests that this has as much (or more) to do with the development of the Patriots defense as it does with the weather, ask yourself this:
If the New England offense played against the New England defense yesterday, who would you put your money on?
The right answer: Brady.
In the NFL especially, there are no certainties. Last year, in January, the Patriots played a home playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens, in sub-40-degree weather, and got their doors blown off. Brady was awful, completing just 54.8 percent of his passes for 154 yards while throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions. (He has thrown only four since.) The Pats subsequently underwent a massive overhaul, coach Bill Belichick all but completely overhauling his defense (Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham) and offense (Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez) through the draft.
Now the Patriots are 11-2 at that time of year when the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, when the challenge of playing intensifies and when the elements come into play, and when Tom Brady shines above all others and becomes the single greatest factor in New England’s success.
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